A quick note about counting news stories
The thing about human beliefs is that they’re tough to survey directly. People often respond to surveys by reporting what convention dictates they should say – not what they truly believe. But you can track what gets written.
Every credible article and report is in effect a vote for one of the five worlds. That’s because journalists and editors write articles they know will appeal to readers. When I first began writing back in the late 1990s, we got reader survey insights once every six months. Today, the world could not be more different. Editors and reporters are tracking real-time insights – web traffic, social engagement, live forums, and of course inbound comments from readers. Popular topics and ideas get more attention over time, and less popular ideas fade away as readers tune out.
From our perspective, the Five Worlds project builds on this idea by committing to a long-term study. When you use the exact same methodology to count enough articles, week after week, all that industry noise starts to resolve into signals that make sense.
And here’s the method. A fixed register of more than 100 B2B events publications, associations, podcasts and YouTube channels across Australia and New Zealand, Singapore and Hong Kong, Europe and North America, read every week. Every story gets the same eight questions, and one ‘world’, classified on what the story assumes rather than how it sounds. For example, a worried piece about mega-conferences is still a Mega Rooms story. A story picked up by five outlets counts once.
That’s because we’re tracking a headline metric we call the Gathering Gap. There are two primary battles of interest. Mega Rooms versus Small Rooms. Scale or intimacy – which narrative is winning?
The weekly scans carry the running score, and the monthly reports read the trend. But that’s not a prediction. That’s where the industry’s attention sits today, and readings change.
So what?
Each one of the Five Events Worlds represents a dominant narrative already alive in our industry. You and your leaders believe one of them. Your sponsors believe another. Delegates are voting with their feet in yet another – attending large or small events based on what they believe delivers most value.
Now, to be clear, the Five Events Worlds won’t tell you which story is ultimately true. But it will show you which stories are gaining ground, which are fading and how fast. Your job is to decide what stories deserve your attention and what’s just noise.
That’s because we believe pattern recognition is one of the most powerful skills leaders need in the age of AI. The question isn’t which future will arrive but which core narrative is the basis on which you’re building your events – and whether you chose that narrative or passively inherited it from someone else.